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AAA Texas: Memorial Day Holiday Travel Expected to Jump 60% Across the Lone Star State and U.S. Year-Over-Year

The return of AAA’s Memorial Day holiday travel forecast predicts nearly three million Texas travelers and 37 million across the U.S., although levels remain below 2019

Coppell, TX Travel
21-1114-TRV-Memorial Day Holiday Travel Forecast Graphics1_1200x1200

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AAA Travel expects a significant rebound in the number of Americans planning to travel this Memorial Day holiday weekend. From May 27 through May 31, more than 37 million people across the U.S. are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home, an increase of around 60% from last year when only 23 million traveled, the lowest on record since AAA began recording in 2000. In Texas, nearly three million people total are expected to travel, with around 2.8 million of them driving.

2021 TX MEMORIAL QUICK FACTS

 

The expected strong increase in demand from last year’s holiday, which fell during the early phase of the pandemic, still represents 13%—or nearly six million—fewer travelers than in 2019 on a national scale. In Texas, the difference from 2019 is about 14% fewer. AAA urges those who choose to travel this year to exercise caution and take measures to protect themselves and others as the pandemic continues.

“Many Texans are excited to travel this Memorial Day holiday as more people get the COVID-19 vaccine and consumer confidence grows,” said Kent Livesay, vice president and general manager of AAA Texas. “This is in large part a result of pent-up demand that will lead to a significant increase in Memorial Day travel, which is also a strong indicator for summer, though it is important to remember to continue taking important safety precautions.”

AAA notes that the actual number of holiday travelers could fluctuate as we approach Memorial Day. If there is an increase in reported cases attributed to new COVID-19 variants, some people may decide to stay home, while others may note the strong progress in vaccinations and make last-minute decisions to travel. AAA recommends working with a travel advisor, who can help if you need to make any last-minute changes to travel plans as well as explore travel insurance options and help you plan a vacation that meets your needs and comfort-level this summer.

Another factor contributing to the expected increase in travel this holiday is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recently updated guidance that fully vaccinated people can travel domestically at low risk to themselves, while taking proper precautions. It’s important to keep in mind that some local and state travel restrictions may still remain in place, however. Travelers can refer to AAA’s COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Map and TripTik.AAA.com for the latest information to help plan their trip.

For travelers who are not vaccinated but choose to travel, CDC recommends that you practice social distancing, wear a mask, wash your hands and get tested before and after travel. Whether you are vaccinated or not, remember masks are required on planes, buses, trains, and other forms of public transportation traveling into, within, or out of the United States and in U.S. transportation hubs such as airports and stations.

AAA Travel has noted significant recent increases in online traffic and bookings on AAA.com, particularly for hotels and car rentals, heading into the summer travel season. AAA booking data reveal that domestic travel and road trips remain the biggest drivers of travel recovery in the near term. Orlando and Las Vegas are top Memorial Day destinations this year, both for AAA Travel bookings and TripTik road trip searches. Other top destinations include the following:

Road Trips:

  1. Las Vegas, NV
  2. Orlando, FL
  3. Myrtle Beach, SC
  4. Denver, CO
  5. Nashville, TN

AAA Travel Bookings:

  1. Orlando, FL
  2. Las Vegas, NV
  3. Honolulu, HI
  4. Anchorage, AK
  5. Colorado Springs, CO

When planning a trip, refer to the new AAA Digital TourBook guides, now available for destinations across the U.S., Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean at TourBook.AAA.com. Available on smartphone, tablet or desktop, the new interactive guides feature detailed destination information, must-see attractions, sample itineraries and more.

Huge Increase in Air Travel Expected, but Most Memorial Day Travelers to Take Road Trips

With 34 million Americans planning Memorial Day road trips, auto travel is expected to increase 52% compared to 2020.  Nearly 12 million more Americans will travel by car this holiday than in 2020, though this is still 9% less than in 2019. More than 9 in 10 Memorial Day travelers will drive to their destinations, as many Americans continue to substitute road trips for travel via planes, trains and other modes of transportation.

After a historically low year of air travel in 2020, this Memorial Day will see nearly 2.5 million Americans boarding airplanes, nearly six times more than last year (+578%). Still, 750,000 fewer people will take to the skies this holiday compared to 2019. AAA reminds air travelers that masks are required in all airports and on flights.

Meanwhile, just 237,000 Americans are expected to travel by other modes, including bus and train, this Memorial Day. This is the second-lowest volume on record, higher only than the 185,000 who traveled in 2020. In 2021, travel via these modes will be 88% below 2019 levels.

TX Memorial Day Travel Forecast Chart 2021

Drivers Beware: Worst Times to Hit the Road

INRIX predicts drivers will encounter the longest travel delays before the holiday weekend, particularly during the afternoons on Thursday, May 27 and Friday, May 28. Drivers in several major U.S. metros could experience double the travel times compared to a normal trip, while Atlanta, Houston and New York drivers could see more than three times the delay on the busiest corridors.

“Although vehicle trips are down as much as 40% in some metros, afternoon congestion is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. With the increase of holiday travelers to the typical afternoon commute, drivers in the larger metros should expect longer delays heading into the holiday weekend,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst, INRIX. “Travelers should anticipate delays to start on Wednesday and continue through Memorial Day. Our advice to drivers is to avoid the evening commute times and plan alternate routes.”

Metro Area

Worst Corridor

Worst Day

Worst Time

Delay Multiplier

Atlanta

I-85 Clockwise;
Hwy 81 to Augusta Rd

Thursday, May 27

3:30–5:30 PM

3.0x

Boston

I-95 South;
MA-9 to Coney St

Thursday, May 27

3:00–5:00 PM

1.2x

Chicago

I-290 West;
Morgan St to Wolf Rd

Thursday, May 27

2:45–4:45 PM

1.2x

Detroit

I-696 West;
M-10 to US-94

Friday, May 28

2:00–4:00 PM

1.5x

Houston

I-69 East;
I-610 to I-10

Friday, May 28

3:15–5:15 PM

3.0x

Los Angeles

I-5 South; Colorado St to Florence Ave

Friday, May 28

4:30–6:30 PM

2.0x

New York

I-95 West;
US-130 to GW Bdg

Thursday, May 27

1:00–3:00 PM

5.4x

San Francisco

US-101 North; Golden Gate Bdg to I-580

Thursday, May 27

5:45–7:45 PM

1.8x

Seattle

I-5 South;
WA-18 to WA-7

Thursday, May 27

5:30–7:30 PM

1.6x

Washington, D.C.

I-95 South;
I-395 to VA-123

Thursday, May 27

3:30–5:30 PM

1.1x

 

 

 

Source: INRIX

 

Before Road Trips, Prep Your Car—And Your Wallet for Higher Gas Prices

For the 34 million Americans expected to travel by car this Memorial Day, they can expect gas prices to be the most expensive since 2014 with the national average possibly more expensive than $3 a gallon.

“We don’t expect higher gas prices to deter motorists this holiday season as many Texans are eager to travel,” said Daniel Armbruster, AAA Texas spokesperson.  “We typically find when pump prices increase, travelers look for more free activities or eat out less while on vacation, but still take their planned trips.”

Gas prices will be increasing in part due to higher demand. As demand increases, gas stations are working to adjust delivery schedules to keep pace. However, there have been instances where some stations are seeing low to no supply at pumps for a few days due to delayed deliveries. Over the holiday weekend, some gas stations in popular travel destinations—like beaches and mountain areas—may experience this situation. Currently, the Colonial Pipeline, which delivers 45% of fuel to the East Coast is offline due to a cyberattack, which will contribute to price increases and limited fuel supply ahead of the holiday. This will affect areas from Mississippi to Tennessee and the east coast from Georgia into Delaware, but hopefully be resolved ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

Letting your vehicle’s fuel tank run dry is more than just an inconvenience, it could also lead to costly mechanical problems down the road. AAA advises to keep an eye on your fuel level and fill up before arriving to your destination. The AAA app can provide insight on gas prices and you can always call ahead to a station to confirm they are open for business.

Before hitting the road, AAA reminds motorists to plan their route in advance and ensure their vehicle is ready, to help avoid a breakdown along the way. AAA expects to rescue more than 468,000 Americans at the roadside this Memorial Day weekend. Nearly 19,000 of those rescues are expected to take place in Texas.

AAA makes it easy to request assistance—by phone or text (1-800-AAA-HELP), app or online—and members can track the service technician’s progress as they make their way to your vehicle. Also, don’t leave home without an emergency roadside kit and continue to pack extra snacks or meals as well as cleaning supplies, including disinfecting wipes.

Regardless of how you plan to get to your destination, AAA advises travelers to seek the advice of a knowledgeable travel advisor to help plan their trips this Memorial Day. To get started and to learn more, visit AAA.com/Travel.

Methodology:

AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit, a London-based business information provider. For the purposes of this forecast, the Memorial Day holiday travel period is defined as Thursday, May 27 through Monday, May 31. The five-day holiday period is consistent with previous Memorial Day holiday periods. This forecast was finalized during the week of April 12.

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Markit developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes, using macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including prices of gasoline, airline travel and hotel stays. For the 2021 Memorial Day holiday travel forecast, IHS Markit also examined changes in the IHS Markit containment index regarding COVID‑19–related restrictions and activity.

About AAA: AAA provides more than 62 million members with automotive, travel, insurance and financial services through its federation of independently owned motor clubs and nearly 1,000 branch offices across North America. Since 1902, AAA has been a leader and advocate for the motorist and safe mobility. Drivers can request roadside assistance, identify nearby gas prices, locate discounts, book a hotel or map a route via the AAA Mobile app. AAA Texas branch offices throughout the state can be found by visiting www.AAA.com. Follow AAA Texas on Twitter: @AAATexas and Facebook: www.facebook.com/AAATexas.

About INRIX:
INRIX is the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics. Leveraging big data and the cloud, INRIX delivers comprehensive services and solutions to help move people, cities and businesses forward. Our partners are automakers, governments, mobile operators, developers, advertisers, as well as enterprises large and small.

About IHS Markit:
IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

Media Contacts

Daniel Armbruster
Media & Corporate Spokesperson , AAA Texas
512-564-3141
armbruster.daniel@aaa-texas.com
Joshua Zuber
Media Spokesperson , AAA Texas (Houston)
713-533-2946
zuber.joshua@aaa-texas.com
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AAA Texas is a member club affiliated with the American Automobile Association (AAA) national federation and serves members in the state of Texas (with the exception of Texarkana).